文章来源：《经济学人》Nov 27th 2021 期 Leaders 栏目
Germany’s new government holds great promise
德国新政府充满希望
Green shift
向绿色转变
It will need luck, too
这也需要运气
【背景】当地时间11月24日，经过两个多月的紧张谈判，于9月末在新一次大选中胜出的德国社会民主党（简称社民党）成功与绿党，以及自由民主党（简称自民党）达成协议，三党约定共同组成下一届政府。
由于社民党、绿党、自民党代表色分别为红色、绿色和黄色，因此被戏称为红绿灯组合。参与组阁的三党基本上各取所需，把持了各自所重视的领域。NO ONE LIKES wAIting for a traffic light. But for Germans the wait is over. On November 24th a new ruling coalition was unveiled. Forming it took only two months after an election. (In the Netherlands parties are still haggling after eight.) Nicknamed “traffic light” after the colours of the parties that will make it up, it is a three-way contraption, Germany’s first since the 1950s, with the Social Democrats in the lead backed up by the Greens and the Free Democrats. But whether the incoming chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will offer dynamic leadership, rather than more of Germany’s recent drift, is hard to say.
【1】contraption （尤指不知如何使用的）笨拙的装置；过时的机器；奇怪的玩意儿
[释义] a device or machine that looks awkward or old-fashioned, especially one that you do not know how to use
【背景1】荷兰政党是指荷兰的8个主要政党，分别是自由民主人民党、工党、基督教民主联盟、自由党、社会党、基督教联盟、左翼绿党、六六民主党。
【背景2】A dynamic leader has a clear vision of where they want to go and how they’re going to get there. They understand where they currently are and are crystal clear on what it’s going to take for them to get to where they want to be. The leader can paint a picture with words to communicate this vision clearly to his team.没有人喜欢等红绿灯。但对德国人来说，等待已经结束。11月24日，一个新的执政联盟诞生了。在一次选举过后，仅用了两个月就组建了该执政联盟。(荷兰的政党在选举过后8个月后还未达成协议) 这是德国自20世纪50年代以来的第一次三党合作，由绿党(绿)和自民党(黄)支持，由社民党(红)领导，根据三党的代表颜色命名为“红绿灯”。但很难说即将上任的德国总理奥拉夫•朔尔茨是否会提供动态领导力，而不是像德国最近那样更多的是随波逐流。
We choose to be optimistic. The entry into the government of the world’s fourth-largest economy by the mainly pragmatic Greens is good news at a time of environmental peril. The devil is in the detail, and there is a lot of it already; the coalition deal comes in the form of a 177-page document laying out its pre-agreed policies. On climate change, these include a pledge to end the burning of coal for electric power by 2030 (eight years earlier than had previously been planned) and to raise the share of renewables to 80% by 2030, from a previous goal of 65%. There is also welcome attention to the nuts and bolts of how all these commitments will actually be achieved.
【1】the nuts and bolts 实质性内容
[释义] the practical facts about a particular thing, rather than theories or ideas about it
【背景】在2030年之前逐步淘汰煤炭，届时德国80%的能源将是可再生能源，路上至少有1500万辆电动汽车，并期待德国于2045年实现碳中和。
目前，德国国内的可再生能源数据远低于80%，大众，宝马，奔驰等德国车企在电动赛道已经落在了中国、美国和日本同行身后。想要达成这一目标，德国政府必须加大开支。
早在默克尔时期，德国就已经定下了完全弃核的基调，目前仍在运作的几座核电站将于明年完全关闭。日本福岛核事故发生前，德国的核电发电量占本国总发电量的比例已经超过了五分之一；事故发生后，德国社会上反对核电的声量越来越大。
由于现存的核电站和火电站逐渐关闭，德国将不得不花大价钱从法国购买电力，这也让它成为了欧洲电价最高的几个国家之一。
讽刺的是，德国人买的电有很大一部分，就是从靠近德法边境的法国核电站发出的。一旦法国核电站发生事故，必然波及德国。 【背景来源：网上自己搜】我们选择乐观。务实的绿党加入世界第四大经济体政府，在环境危机时期是个好消息。细节决定成败，而细节现在已经很多了; 这份177页的执政联合协议，列出了双方事先商定的政策。在气候变化方面，这些承诺包括到2030年停止燃煤发电(比原计划提前8年)，到2030年将可再生能源的份额从原先的65%提高到80%。值得欢迎的是，人们还关注如何实际实现所有这些承诺的实质性内容。
More than that, it is now reasonable to expect that Germany, whose new foreign minister is set to be Annalena Baerbock, one of the Greens’ co-leaders, will push much harder than before for the EU to do more to fight climate change, and for the EU’s weight as the world’s second-largest consumer market to be used to urge others on. Germany cannot routinely get its own way in the EU, of course; but it is still the most influential member of the club. Likewise, Europe does not always prevail. But its commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, though it binds no one else, has become a global standard that others are under increasing pressure to meet.
【1】to get or have one's (own) way 一意孤行更重要的是, 现在有理由期待德国的新外交部长绿党联席主席安娜莱娜·贝尔伯克,将比以往更加努力地推动欧盟采取更多措施应对气候变化,并利用欧盟作为世界第二大消费市场的影响力来敦促其他国家采取行动。当然，德国在欧盟不能向来都一意孤行；但它仍然是这个俱乐部中最有影响力的成员。同样，欧洲也不总是占上风。但它承诺到2050年实现温室气体净零排放，尽管这一承诺对其他国家没有约束力，但它已经成为一个全球标准，为了满足这一标准，其他国家面临着越来越大的压力。
The carbon news is therefore good, and other parts of the package are as well. NATO allies may fret that Germany now plans to attend the first meeting of signatories to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. But it will be as an observer only and, more important, the new government will continue with “nuclear sharing”: the positioning of American nukes on German soil and Germany’s commitment to maintain aircraft to drop them if need be. (A failure to commit itself firmly to NATO’s defence-spending target of 2% GDP is a bigger, but hardly new, worry.) Other pluses include measures to reform Germany’s creaking bureaucracy and a vow to legalise cannabis. A tougher line against Russia and especially XX is also on the cards.
【1】plus 有利因素
【2】creaking
[释义] showing weakness or frailty under strain.
【背景1】据报道，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格近日表示，北约希望德国今后继续参与该军事联盟的核共享政策，即一旦发生危机，德国战斗机可以携带美国在该国境内部署的核弹。
【背景2】推动娱乐大麻合法化。前不久，美国的一些州和加拿大均宣布娱乐大麻合法化，而法国也在巴黎开设了合法吸毒室。作为最贴合年轻人需求的绿党，推动德国的大麻合法化也算是“虽迟但到”的一项任务。抛开大麻合法化正确与否这个问题，目前的西方主流舆论对此是默许的。因此，碳排放的消息是好的，一揽子计划的其他部分也是好的。北约盟国可能会担心德国现在计划参加“禁止核武器条约”的第一次签署国会议。但它将只以观察员的身份存在，更重要的是，新政府将继续“核共享”政策: 将美国的核武器部署在德国领土上，并承诺德国将在战机挂载美国核弹，在必要时投放这些核武器。(北约未能坚定地承诺将国防开支控制在GDP的2%是一个更大的担忧，但这已经不是什么新鲜事了。) 其他有利的计划包括改革德国不堪重负的官僚机构的措施，以及承诺将大麻合法化。对俄罗斯、尤其是XX采取更强硬的立场也是可能的。
There are trickier elements. The expected appointment of Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats, as finance minister suggests that ditching Germany’s outmoded debt brake or loosening the EU’s purse strings beyond its €750bn ($840bn) covid-recovery package is unlikely; Mr Lindner has been an opponent of both. Still, none of this looked likely to change much, whoever got the job. Mr Scholz is thrifty, like most German voters, and Germany belongs to a group of frugal northern EU countries. Even so, the deal contains signs of flexibility here, too. And Mr Lindner’s involvement could well be a plus. He is strongly pro-business, and his presence will reassure conservatives if such flexibility is employed.
【背景1】自民党是本次三党联盟中得票最少的一个党派，其基本盘主要是德国社会的中上阶层，如企业主和医生等。因此，该党主张新自由主义的经济政策，包括减税、用商业保险模式代替德国现行的全民医疗和社会养老体系、降低政府开支、政府放松市场管控等等。
【背景2】德国引入“债务刹车”条款，2011年将这一条款写入宪法，即德国结构性赤字不可超过国内生产总值的0.35%，保持预算平衡。还有一些更棘手的部分。自民党领袖克里斯蒂安•林德纳预计将出任财政部长，这似乎表明，不太可能放弃德国过时的债务刹车，或放松欧盟超过7500亿欧元（8400亿美元）的新冠肺炎复苏计划的钱袋子是不可能的; 林德纳一直是这两种观点的反对者。不过，无论谁得到这份工作，这一切似乎都不会有太大改变。朔尔茨先生和大多数德国选民一样节俭，而且德国属于节俭的北欧国家。即便如此，该协议在这方面也有灵活性的迹象。林德纳的参与很可能是一大有利因素。他是一个非常亲商的人，如果这种灵活性得到利用的话，他的存在将使保守派放心。
Perhaps the biggest worry about the new coalition is that it may spend too much of its time arguing. On many issues, Mr Scholz can expect his liberal partners to pull in one direction, and his Green partners in another. The laboriously hashed-out plan provides a baseline of agreement, but there will always be things it failed to foresee, or simply ducked. Covid-19 is again raging in Germany (see Leader) and Vladimir Putin is a menace. But the methodical and disciplined way the three parties have worked through their differences gives reason to hope that they will be able to go on doing so. Viel Glück! ■
【1】laboriously 艰苦地
【2】hash sth out 和其他人协商共同达成
[释义] to talk about something with someone else in order to reach agreement about it
【3】methodical 做事有条不紊的也许对新联合政府最大的担忧是它可能会花费太多的时间争论。在许多问题上，朔尔茨先生可以期待他的自由派伙伴向一个方向拉，而他的绿党伙伴向另一个方向拉。这样艰难地协商一致的计划提供了一个达成一致的基础，但总会有一些事情是它没有预见到的，或者只是简单地回避了。Covid-19再次在德国肆虐，普京是一个威胁。但是，三党有条不紊地解决了他们之间的分歧，这使人们有理由希望，他们能够继续这样做下去。祝好运! ■
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