文章来源：《经济学人》Jan 8th 2022 期 United States栏目
The year ahead in American politics looks daunting for Democrats
对民主党人来说，未来一年的美国政治看起来令人生畏
Biden’s burden
拜登的重负
By the end of 2022, momentum will probably have shifted to Donald Trump’s Republicans
到2022年底，势头可能会转向川普的共和党人身上
Jan 8th 2022
IN 2021 JOE BIDEN’S presidency began with early success, not long after a violent insurrection at the Capitol by diehard supporters of Donald Trump. In 2022, a reversal of fortunes is likely. Whatever verve the Biden administration still has may be killed off after the mid-term elections in November—a date that will also mark the unofficial start of the next presidential contest, which at this point seems a prelude to Mr Trump’s recoronation.
【1】insurrection 叛乱；起义
【2】diehard 顽固的
【3】verve 活力；热情；精力
【4】kill off 使..停止；消灭
【5】prelude 前奏2021年，在川普的狂热支持者在国会大厦发动暴力叛乱后不久，拜登的总统任期开始时取得了初步成功。2022年，命运很可能逆转。不管拜登政府还有多少精力，它都可能在11月的中期选举后被“消灭”，这一天也将标志着下一届总统竞选的“非正式开始”，这一次似乎是川普重新当选的前奏。
Consider first the flagging fortunes of the son of Scranton. After success at passing a gargantuan stimulus package (in hindsight it was too big), Mr Biden’s presidency became stuck. The blows came one after the other: high inflation, fuelled partly by fiscal stimulus; an unrelenting pandemic; the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan; and the White House’s inability to whip Democratic majorities into voting for legislation. His approval rating has declined by 25 percentage points since the start of his term—leaving him nearly as unpopular as Mr Trump at this point of his presidency (see chart). Before Christmas, a pivotal senator dealt a deathblow to the Build Back Better (BBB) act, a package of climate-change mitigation and social benefits which was meant to be the signature legislation of his presidency.
【1】gargantuan 巨大的
【2】blow 重击
【3】to deal sb/sth a death blow 给某人/某事物致命的打击先看看斯克兰顿之子日渐衰落的财富。在成功地通过了一项庞大的经济刺激计划之后(事后看来，该计划规模太大了)，拜登的总统任期陷入僵局。打击接踵而至: 高通胀(部分原因是由于财政刺激推动的);一个持续的疫情; 从阿富汗的混乱撤军; 以及白宫无力促使民主党多数派投票支持立法。自他的任期开始以来，他的支持率已经下降了25个百分点，这使得他在他的任期内几乎和川普一样不受欢迎(见图表)。圣诞节前，一位关键的参议员给了“重建更好未来”法案致命一击，该法案包含“缓解气候变化”以及“社会福利”，这本应是他总统任期内的标志性立法。
Heightening the malAIse are the elections looming in November, in which Mr Biden will probably lose what ability he still has to legislate. Presidents almost always suffer losses in their first mid-term elections, and the razor-thin majorities Democrats retain in both chambers of Congress are unlikely to hold. Republicans need to take just five seats in the House of Representatives to win a majority and an explicit veto over all Mr Biden’s desired legislation. In 2010 Barack Obama lost 63 seats in his self-described “shellacking”. In 2018 Mr Trump lost 35.
【1】malaise 莫名的不安
【2】shellac 彻底击败11月即将到来的选举加剧了这种不安情绪，拜登可能会失去他仍然拥有的立法能力。总统在他们的第一次中期选举中几乎总是会遭遇失败，而民主党在参众两院中保持的微弱多数也不太可能继续保持。共和党只需在众议院获得5个席位，就能赢得多数席位，并明确否决拜登所期望的所有立法。2010年，奥巴马在他自称的“惨败”中丢掉了63个席位。2018年，川普丢掉了35个席位。
Were Mr Biden’s approval rating higher, he might have reason to hope to escape this eventuality. Unfortunately for him, it is not. Betting markets give Republicans an 82% chance of winning the House, and a 70% chance of retaking the Senate to boot.
【1】eventuality 可能发生的事
【2】to boot 此外如果拜登的支持率更高，他或许有理由希望避免这种可能性。不幸的是，对他来说，事实并非如此。赌博市场里，押共和党有82%的机会赢下众议院，此外有70%的机会夺回参议院。
The retirement announcements of longtime members of Congress, who prefer not to leave office by electoral rejection, are an omen of what probably lies ahead. So far 25 House Democrats have said they will not seek re-election, including some powerful committee chairmen, compared with 12 Republicans. Importantly, 17 of those Democrats are not leaving to seek another office or prominent position (“pure retirements”), as against four of the Republicans. In previous election years retirements have been leading indicators of losses for the party in power. Exogenous events, such as the Supreme Court’s curtailing of constitutional rights to abortion provoking a backlash in the suburbs, may help Democrats at the margin. But the end result is unlikely to remain full Democratic control of Washington.
长期担任国会议员的议员们不愿因选举排斥而离任，他们宣布退休的消息预示着未来可能会发生什么。到目前为止，有25名众议院民主党人表示，他们不会寻求连任，其中包括一些有权势的委员会主席，相比之下，只有12名共和党人表示不会。重要的是，这些民主党人中有17人不是为了寻求其他职位或显赫职位(“纯粹的退休”)而离开，而共和党人中则有4人。在之前的选举年，退休一直是执政党失败的主要标志物。一些外部事件，比如最高法院限制宪法赋予堕胎的权利，这在郊区引发了强烈反对，这可能会帮助在边缘的民主党。但最终结果不太可能让民主党继续完全控制华盛顿。
That leaves just a few months for Democrats to make use of their unified control of Congress and the White House. Much of the ostensibly highest-priority legislation pledged to its partisans—to bolster voting rights, boost unions, reduce police brutality and reform the immigration system—is dead on arrival, because the filibuster in the Senate allows the Republican minority to deny it passage. The filibuster itself, which progressives had once hoped would be dispensed with, is set to stay.
【1】dispense with 省掉；摒弃民主党人还剩几个月的时间来利用他们对国会和白宫的统一控制。许多表面上向其坚定支持者承诺的最高优先级的法案（包括扩大投票权、促进工会、减少警察暴行和改革移民制度）都在到达时就夭折了，因为参议院的阻挠行动允许共和党少数派否决它的通过。进步党曾经希望能够废除阻挠行动本身，但它还是被保留下来。
Rather than waste too much time on signalling bills without much chance of passage, Democrats are instead likely to devote months to resuscitating a pale version of BBB (which itself is theoretically passable only because a special budgetary procedure can circumvent the filibuster). Strenuous negotiations with Joe Manchin, the main Democratic holdout, are the only way forward for the president if he wishes to have something substantive to present to voters in November. They are likely to drag for months. The demands of the campaign season and the difficulty of actual passage may leave little time or inclination for anything else.
与其浪费太多时间在没有多少通过机会的议案上，民主党人更愿意花上几个月的时间来恢复“重建更好未来”法案的微弱版本(这个版本本身在理论上是可以通过的，因为一个特殊的预算程序可以绕过阻挠)。如果总统希望在11月向选民展示一些实质性的东西，与民主党主要的“顽敌” Joe Manchin进行艰苦的谈判，是总统前进的唯一途径。他们可能会拖上几个月。竞选季节的要求和实际通过的困难，可能没有多少时间或兴趣去做其他事情。
By year’s end, then, momentum will probably have shifted from Democrats to Republicans. Electoral victory will seem to validate the party’s failure to reckon with its leader’s serious attempts to subvert elections. In fact, it may be even more beholden to him.
【1】to be beholden to sb 对某人负有义务到今年年底，势头可能会从民主党转向共和党。选举的胜利似乎证实了该党未能正视其领导人颠覆选举结果的严重企图。事实上，这可能更归功于他。
Few of the Republicans who voted to impeach Mr Trump for his actions after his electoral loss will remain in office. After purges in the party primaries, internal resistance to Mr Trump’s whims will be weaker. The former establishmentarians who made their peace with Trumpism will see rewards. Kevin McCarthy will probably ascend to the speakership of the House that he covets. All this will be achieved with no need for the Republican Party to come up with a policy agenda in response to the defeats in 2020.
对于那些在川普竞选失败后投票弹劾他的共和党人，几乎不会有人会继续留任。在党内初选的清洗之后，内部对川普奇想的抵制将会减弱。与川普主义和平相处的前建制派人士将看到回报。 Kevin McCarthy很可能会成为他梦寐以求的众议院议长。所有这一切都将实现，无需共和党提出政策议程来应对2020年的失败。
The ambitious policy agenda of the Democrats, meanwhile, will probably languish as the usual forces of gridlock and partisanship come to dominate a divided Congress. Like Mr Obama before him, Mr Biden will then have to rely on transient executive actions and orders to get just about anything done.
与此同时，民主党雄心勃勃的政策议程可能会随着政治僵局和党派之争的惯常力量在分裂的国会中占主导地位而黯然失色。就像之前的奥巴马一样，拜登将不得不依靠短暂的行政行动和命令来完成几乎所有的事情。
In both parties, jockeying for the next presidential election is already well under way, though the contest may be a repeat of 2020. Both Mr Biden and Mr Trump are hubristic enough to refuse to relinquish power to younger politicians. Yet both are also old enough for their health to preclude them from running. Kamala Harris, the vice-president, will still be the Democrats’ heir apparent, despite her dismal campaign in 2020 and rocky first year as the second-in-command. If Mr Trump were not to run, a populist crafted in his image, such as Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, is his likely successor. Even if the elderly men were to stand aside, America is likely to be treated to a duel of seconds. ■
【1】to preclude sb/sth from doing sth; 阻止某人/某物做某事在两党中，下一届总统选举的角逐已经展开，尽管这场角逐可能是2020年的重演。拜登和川普都足够傲慢，拒绝将权力拱手让给更年轻的政客。然而，两人的年龄也足以让他们的健康状况阻止他们“竞选”。副总统Kamala Harris仍将是民主党的法定继承人，尽管她在2020年的竞选中表现不佳，而且在担任总统二把手的第一年处境艰难。如果川普不参选，像佛罗里达州州长Ron DeSantis这样的以他形象塑造的民粹主义者可能是他的继任者。即使上了年纪的人退居一旁，美国也很可能面临一场二把手的决斗。■
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